It was 60 days ago when the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the source for the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. As Rogers drilled in his second to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough question to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, while the victories have stacked up.
According to the data, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a team that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look curiously susceptible – but currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and wait for Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again versus United.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa have to face in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he resembled in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.
